I'll very rarely back a road game in a Game 7 in any sport. Dallas has played better defensively on home ice in this series (1.97 expected goals against at 5-on-5) than on the road (2.33). Since a 3-1 loss in Game 2, Stars netminder Jake Oettinger has posted an overall stellar save percentage of .944, including .960 in a Game 6 loss. Trust him a little more than counterpart Adin Hill. Stars forward Joe Pavelski (7-3) and head coach Peter DeBoer (7-0) can both match the NHL record for career Game 7 wins, a mark currently shared by six skaters and one coach.

It's going to be rinse and repeat for me here with another Game 7 under. These games just see things tighten up, and that's what I expect from this Dallas-Vegas game tonight. I lean the Stars way to win, but I far more prefer to simply fade the goals. Four of the past five games this series have gone under 5.5 goals.