The Orioles at a slight plus-price will always get our attention this season, and no different tonight at Cincy in this rematch of the 1970 World Series. No Brooks Robinson needed this time as a vacuum at third base, especially with Cole Irvin pitching superbly in recent starts, and not allowing a run across 13 2/3 IP in his last two starts against he Royals and A's. Just off of winning a midweek set vs. the Yankees, Baltimore brings an AL-best 8-4 road mark into tonight. Play Orioles on Money Line

Again, I do different. Not sure the Reds should get +1.5 so we throw a tad down simply because. Flipped at many books. Hunter Greene is like James Spader in every 80s movie. You kinda hate him but like him.

Greene doesn’t have the advanced metrics of seasons past….and this number v this team in a small park seems too go to pass up. A rare heavily juiced play.

Baltimore can slug their way to a win at Great American and I think HGreene is a tad overrated and does not look as formidable this season. Birds plus money

The small park in Cincy is a problem for Hunter Greene, who can throw over 100 regularly but whose command really hurts him by filling the basepathes. O'Hearn is a smart hitter, he knows Greene is a two pitch guy and he's pretty adept at getting himself into fastball counts. O'Hearn has a ridiculous 59% hard hit rate vs 4-seams, velo is not a problem for him and he is 100th percentile in xSLG and 91st in barrel%. O'Hearn has a .990 OPS vs righties this season. This ballpark should play very well for him. I like him to jump something tonight (and yeah a HR is very much in play here, too).

This is just a huge number for any pitcher, but it's especially daunting for Hunter Greene whose K metrics are down compared to previous seasons. I would also rate this as a difficult matchup against an Orioles lineup that possesses the 10th lowest K rate in the league, in addition to the 10th highest OPS against opposing right handed pitchers.